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The Milwaukee Brewers are going for their 12th win in a row Tuesday, July 22 when they visit the Seattle Mariners, and they’ll be fortunate to have ace Jacob Misiorowski (4-1, 2.81 ERA) on the mound when they attempt to extend their winning streak. Misiorowski has been the real deal this season, striking out 12 in six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last appearance. He allowed just one run in that 3-1 victory. The Mariners will counter with Logan Gilbert (2-3, 3.39 ERA), who allowed just two runs in 5 1/3 innings in a win over the Detroit Tigers, striking out nine in the process.
Sportsbooks have set both Misiorowski’s and Gilbert’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Misiorowski Under 6.5 as a 4-star play on its five-star scale and Gilbert Over 6.5 as a 2.5-star play.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Tuesday’s 15-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 5 stars, including one that would pay plus money. Here they are:
The 25-year-old Nationals rookie has been working out of the bullpen since mid-May, but on Tuesday he returns to the starting rotation to replace Shinnosuke Ogasawara. In six previous starts this season, Lord (2-5, 3.46) went Over 2.5 strikeouts five times, averaging 3.5 strikeouts per game. On Tuesday he will face a Cincinnati club that strikes out 8.6 times per game, the 10th highest rate in the majors.
Cam Schlittler Over 3.5 strikeouts (-145) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts
Schlittler (1-0, 5.06 ERA) may have gotten the victory in his first start but he got roughed up a bit against the Mariners, giving up three runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 9-6 Yankees win. New York lost the series opener thanks to a four-run fifth inning for the Blue Jays, highlighted by two errors. The Yankees need Schlittler to have a strong showing to get back in the series and that’s going to be tough against a Toronto lineup with the best batting average in baseball and the lowest number of strikeouts but the SportsLine model has a strong lean to the Over on Schlittler’s strikeouts prop.
J.T. Ginn Over 3.5 strikeouts (+108) vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Tuesday. Like Lord, Ginn (1-2, 4.91) started games earlier this season, went to the bullpen, and he returns to the rotation on Tuesday. In his four starts this year, he went Over 3.5 strikeouts three times and averaged 5.5 strikeouts per start. He is scheduled to face a Texas ballclub that has averaged 11.0 strikeouts over the last three games, the second-highest total over that stretch.